We track all active tropical cyclones worldwide, drawing on a broad array of real-time weather data to drive in-house, advanced numerical modeling that computes maximum wind speed, wave and storm surge heights, and cumulative climatological rainfall along the forecast track. For each active tropical storm globally, we produce outputs for multiple storm tracks based on the Official forecast track, provided by the designated storm forecasting agency for a given region (e.g., the National Hurricane Center for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basin), and for alternative scenarios from other, well-performing forecast models available for the event.
Hazard and impact products from the real-time simulation of global tropical cyclone events are generally available within 30 minutes of the release of new tropical cyclone forecast information. Once a storm is no longer active, we produce a post-storm package with hazard and impact estimates for the full storm track.
Kinetic Analysis Corporation offers near real-time estimates of the spatial distributions of wind, wave, storm surge and precipitation intensities from tropical cyclones. The units for hazard intensity can be customized for a client. For example, winds can be provided as 10-minute or 1-minute sustained winds or as gusts over a specified time at 10 m height in open terrain. With our multi-model approach, we offer winds, waves and storm surge intensities consistent with a wide range of forecasts including the: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, US National Hurricane Center, the UK Met Office and other forecast centers and models.
Consistent with Kinetic Analysis Corporation’s multi-model and global approach we offer exceedance probabilities for damage ratios based on eight damage function families for any location and for a wide range of asset classes. Structural damage functions account for damage due to tropical cyclone winds and tropical cyclone-generated storm surge and waves. When there is damage to the envelope of a structure, damage to a structure’s contents is also estimated.
Asset-specific damage ratios can be provided for a variety of use cases: real-time forecasts, post-event analysis, historical event analysis and synthetic event analysis. For each use case, clients may license damage ratios derived using our default damage function family or using all eight damage function families. When licensing multiple damage function families, damage ratios can be delivered as an average of the different vulnerability functions, as user-specified quantiles (e.g, 25th, 50th and 75th percentile), or as discrete damage ratios.
Damage ratios can be provided for client-specified exposure datasets and locations, at various administrative level groupings, or at postal code resolution for selected countries. Any of these exposures can be used with appropriate hazard data to support decision-making for active tropical cyclone events, recent catastrophic impacts, scenario analysis, or long-term risk management.
Real-time data can be delivered through web services, ftp or client-specific means of access.