Detailed information on the extent and severity of hazards in an approaching storm can assists property owners, facility managers and emergency personnel in visualizing the intensity of the wind, wave and storm surge forces that will affect locations of specific importance to them. Such information is critical to support preparedness and contingency planning aimed at minimizing losses from an eventual impact. Kinetic Analysis regularly updates that information to ensure that clients are acting upon the best-available, current information for an active event.
Real-time analysis. Using its Real-Time Impact Forecasting System (RTFS), Kinetic Analysis tracks active tropical cyclones worldwide, drawing on a broad array of real-time weather data from sources such as the NOAAPORT satellite and the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system. These detailed event data drive in-house advanced numerical modeling to compute maximum wind speed, wave and storm surge heights, and cumulative climatological rainfall along the forecast track. [MPRES tropical cyclone hazard definitions]
For active tropical storms globally, Kinetic Analysis produces outputs for multiple storm tracks, including the Official forecast track, provided by the designated storm forecasting agency for a given region (i.e. the NHC for the Atlantic basin), and alternative scenarios from other, well-performing forecast models available for the event.
Tropical cyclone event information produced by Kinetic Analysis includes:
- event information: full storm track, with past and forecast positions and characteristics
- hazards: maximum wind speed, wave height, storm surge height, and cumulative climatological rainfall for the forecast track, providing a preview of the strength of the hazard forces likely to impact any location of interest.
- forecast probability envelopes, including probability of the storm location, and probability of tropical cyclone-force winds (or greater).
Based on our detailed, storm-specific hazard model results, we analyze the consequences of the event forecast:
- population impacted by damaging hazard levels
- sector-specific damage and operational impacts: global transportation infrastructure (e.g. ports and airports), oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and refining facilities globally, US electrical generation and distribution, and other sectors
- value of total physical damage and insured loss by country and administrative areas globally.
Hazard and impact products from the real-time simulation of global tropical cyclone events are generally available within 30 minutes of the release of new tropical cyclone forecast information. Once a storm is no longer active, we produce a post-storm package with hazard and impact estimates for the full storm track. Contact us for a detailed list of available real-time tropical cyclone hazard and impact products.
Long-term hazard and impact risk assessment. Using the same modeling technology as applied to real-time tropical cyclone events, we analyze the long-term risk to tropical cyclone perils (wind, wave, surge) at a given location, or to a specific portfolio of assets, by analyzing hazards and impacts generated by a large catalog of historic or synthetic events.