Greater clarity in an uncertain world

Risk Arbiter

As a company with deep experience in natural hazard modeling, we understand clearly that no single model will be optimal for estimating damage and loss in all events. The scientific literature offers a wide variety of valid modeling approaches to answer the challenges of simulating complex natural hazard events.

Kinetic Analysis' MPRES modeling platform offers a wide range of model component options for simulating meteorologic and seismic events. By employing multiple combinations of these modeling components, we can produce multiple reasonable estimates of the hazards produced by an event. For example, in modeling tropical cyclones, using different wind and friction modules will produce different but related results for the simulated storm wind field. Similarly, a range of damage functions are available for translating hazard forces into damage and loss estimates.

By generating damage and loss estimates for a portfolio of assets, using multiple model combinations for each event, we can better understand the range of reasonable loss estimates for an asset or group of assets. This information can be used to help quantify the uncertainty associated with model selection, or for evaluating estimates or modeling from other sources.

Using this ensemble modeling functionality, Kinetic Analysis provided the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology risk arbiter services to evaluate the risk modeling solutions provided by other companies in support of property insurance pricing in the State of Florida. For the Florida analysis, we evaluated loss estimates from over 1,000 model combinations for 150 years of historical Atlantic tropical storms to produce county-level loss ranges for evaluating model submissions.