Greater clarity in an uncertain world

Real Time Analysis

Kinetic Analysis produces accurate, site-specific estimates of hazard forces, damage, operational impact, and loss for active tropical cyclone and earthquake events globally.

Using regularly updated event information from forecasting and monitoring sources, we produce detailed hazard estimates specific to the event using our advanced numerical modeling platform, the Multi-hazard Parallel Risk Evaluation System (MPRES). With detailed datasets on assets at risk, we then calculate estimated damage, impact and loss from the modeled location-specific hazard forces to determine expected consequences from the event across sectors of the economy.

For tropical cyclones, we compute hazards and impacts along the entire forecast track of the storm, and update these results shortly after the release of each new forecast. Key hazards produced by our modeling include peak winds, storm surges, wave heights and event rainfall. Our hazard and impact results are available for 1) official forecasts released by the US National Hurricane Center (for the Atlantic, East and Central Pacific basins) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for all other basins, and 2) alternative forecast scenarios using other well-performing forecast models for active storms.

For earthquakes, we produce event-specific ground-shaking estimates based on event information from the USGS and the global CMT project.

Based on these hazard modeling results, we produce real-time assessments of damages to client-specific assets, the resulting sector damages and impacts (include event-specific estimates of affected population, expected US county-level electrical outages and impacts on oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico) and economic impact (total and insured loss).