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Risk Assessment

Hazard Assessment Products

KAC conducts storm simulations and statistical impact analyses at either medium resolution (12 arc-seconds or 370m grid) or high resolution (3 to 1 arc-seconds or 90 to 30m grid) for tropical cyclone hazards anywhere in the world. The effects of historical storms are simulated using the TAOS model to create a data base of impacts for the specific areas of interest. Applying advanced statistical methods to the resulting impact database, KAC produces estimates for wind speed, wave height and storm surge elevation for return periods from 10 to 500 years. The results of this risk analysis are useful for decisions related to physical planning and development, to economic investments and insurance and to engineering design.

Standard KAC hazard studies are conducted using KAC's active digital elevation model (DEM) archive. The spatial resolution of the hazard assessment is selected according to the client's needs.

Level 1 Studies: Concept Design

A Level 1 study provides estimates of tropical storm-related wind wave and surge hazards for one given coastal site, at a resolution of 12 arcseconds (~370m). Results of a Level 1 study should provide sufficient detail for conceptual design. Outputs include:

  • Wind, wave and surge hazards. Tabular information on wind, wave and surge impacts is provided for the 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods at four prediction limits (50%, 75%, 90% and 95%). At a client's request, deep ocean wave data can be produced for use by the client with in-house wave propagation models.

  • ENSO Impacts. An assessment of the impact of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena is provided for the wind hazard estimates.

  • Methodology. A detailed description of the methodology used in the assessment and notes on the use of the hazard assessment results are included in the study report.

  • A site map based on a recent LandSat image of the study area.

Sample results from a KAC level 1 study for a specific coastal site are provided in the table below.

Prediction limit (%)

Return Period (years)

Wind

(kts)

Surge

(m)

Wave

(m)

50

10

36.4

0.16

1.37

25

53.4

0.45

1.68

50

66.5

0.87

2.17

100

80.3

1.77

2.95

75

10

38.9

0.19

1.40

25

57.5

0.56

1.80

50

72.7

1.11

2.52

100

89.0

2.37

3.64

90

10

41.1

0.21

1.43

25

62.3

0.71

1.95

50

80.6

1.54

2.92

100

101.5

2.84

4.20

95

10

42.5

0.23

1.45

25

65.7

0.83

2.08

50

87.7

1.91

3.41

100

112.1

3.33

4.85

Level 2 Studies: Detailed Design

A Level 2 study is conducted to support the formulation of design standards and siting decisions that are part of the detailed design process for coastal infrastructure and facilities. A Level 2 study covers an area of interest rather than a single site. It is conducted at the highest resolution permitted by the available data, ranging from 3 arc-seconds (90m) to 1 arc-second (30m) or less. Outputs include:

  • Wind, Wave and Storm Surge hazards. Tabular information for multiple sites in the study area. Wind, wave and storm surge estimates are provided for the 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods at four prediction limits (50%, 75%, 90% and 95%, or others as needed). At a client's request, deep ocean wave data can be produced for use by the client with in-house wave propagation models.

  • ENSO Impacts. An assessment of the impact of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena is provided for the wind hazard estimates.

  • GIS and Map Products. All analysis results are provided in map and GIS formats, as required for the specific applications of the client.

  • Methodology. A detailed description of the methodology used in the assessment and notes on the use of the hazard assessment results are included in the study report.

Estimated storm surge (m) relative to mean sea level

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Copyright © 2006 Kinetic Analysis Corporation
Last modified: 10/17/07