Damaging earthquakes strike with little or no warning, causing potentially large damages and loss of life, even in areas well prepared for them. There are no forecasts for earthquakes as there are for active tropical storms. Kinetic Analysis uses data published immediately after an event to produce detailed information on the expected severity and extent of damaging from ground shaking caused by the event to support post-event response, recovery and impact assessment.
Real-time analysis. Through our Real-Time Impact Forecasting System (RTFS), Kinetic Analysis monitors seismic networks for information on earthquakes worldwide.
With the MPRES, our in-house advanced numerical modeling platform, we simulate each active event to calculate ground shaking intensity footprints for each event, based on:
- event location, depth and magnitude information from the US Geological Survey (USGS) and (where available) moment-centroid information from the Global centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) project
- energy attenuation using one of the many attenuation functions available in the MPRES
- local site amplification using in-house global site amplification data
Shortly after new or updated event information is made available for recent events, we produce the following event, hazard and impact information in GIS format:
- event location and characteristics
- ground shaking intensity map data
- estimated population affected by ground-shaking intensity categories
Based on our detailed, storm-specific hazard model results, we analyze the consequences of the event forecast:
- population impacted by damaging hazard levels
- damages to client-specific assets, through direct damage analysis for clients' asset data or using damage estimates for standard building classes by global postal code locations
- value of total physical damage and insured loss by country and administrative areas globally.
Real-time earthquake hazard and impact information is produced in the RTFS for all events magnitude 5.2 or greater globally. Contact us for a detailed list of available real-time earthquake hazard and impact products.
Long-term hazard and impact risk assessment. Using the same modeling technology as applied to real-time earthquake events, we analyze the long-term risk to ground-shaking peril at a given location, or to a specific portfolio of assets, by analyzing hazards and impacts generated by a large catalog of historic or synthetic events.