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KAC Articles and References
KAC Hazard and Loss Modeling Technology
From its inception, KAC has submitted its hazard and loss
modeling techniques to the scrutiny of the scientific community, as part of its
commitment to the quality and performance of its operations and results.
Selected KAC peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals include:
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Watson, C.,
Jr., 1995: The Arbiter Of Storms: a high resolution, GIS based storm hazard
model, National Weather Digest, 20, 2-9.
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Watson, C.
Jr. and M. E. Johnson, 1999: “Design, Implementation, and Operation of a Modular
Integrated Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model,” AMS 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and
Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX.
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Watson, C.
Jr, and Johnson, M., 2003: An assessment of computer based estimates of
hurricane loss costs in North Carolina. Report to the North Carolina
Department of Insurance, Raleigh, N.C.
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Watson, C.
Jr. and M. E. Johnson, 2004: “Hurricane Loss Estimation Models: Opportunities
for Improving the State Of the Art,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, November 2004.
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Johnson, M.
E., and Watson, C., Jr., 2006: “Fitting Statistical Distributions to Data in
Hurricane Modeling,” American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences,
forthcoming.
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Iman, Ronald L., Johnson, Mark E., and Watson, Charls C.
Jr, 2006: “Statistical Aspects of Forecasting and Planning for Hurricanes,”
The American Statistician, May 2006, Vol. 60, No. 2.
Validation of KAC Global and Sectoral Impact Estimates
KAC combines its detailed hazard analysis results with
detailed information on assets at risk and their vulnerability to produce
statistically reliable estimates of the impact of these hazards on the assets.
Comparisons between KAC impact forecasts and observed/reported impacts include
the following:
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Real-time Damage Forecasts for Typhoon Damrey (September
2005) and Comparison with Damage Reports
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Watson, Charles C. Jr and Johnson, Mark E, 2005:
“Real-time Prediction of Shut-in Production from Hurricanes in the Gulf of
Mexico (Katrina, Rita and Wilma, 2005),” presented at the Annual Society of
Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Technical Conference, San Antonio TX.
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Verification of Electrical Outage Forecasts for Hurricanes
Charley and Ivan (2004) and Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005).
Analysis of KAC Hazard Assessment Accuracy
KAC systematically verifies the performance of its storm
hazard modeling technology by comparing the model outputs against observed
values. Such verifications take place periodically, and the results are made
available in publications and technical presentations. KAC routinely simulates
all storm events in real time, and stores the simulation results for each of the
hazards. Storm events that have produced a large number of reliable and
independently documented observations are then used to conduct a comparative
analysis of the outputs of the TAOS storm simulation process with these
observations. Results from the following verification exercises are available:
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Wind speed estimates for hurricane Floyd (1999):
comparison of maximum wind speed values computed with the KAC TAOS model for
46 locations, with the wind speed reading from the synoptic weather stations
in these points, located along the entire Atlantic Coast of the US from the
Bahamas in the south to Massachusetts in the north. Correlation Coefficient:
0.92.
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Storm surge height estimates for 18 US Atlantic/Gulf
Hurricanes (1994-2003): comparison of KAC-computed maximum surge values
against the surge heights observed in 460 locations along the US Gulf,
Caribbean and Atlantic coasts: Correlation coefficient: 0.96.
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Wave height estimates for (a) Hurricane Opal (1995) were
compared against reports from 3 NOAA buoys in the Gulf of Mexico; and (b)
Typhoon Danas (2001) were compared against the readings of the Topex/Poseidon
satellite. In each case, an acceptable fit was achieved.
[See also the
full list of KAC publications.] |
