Advanced numerical modeling and analysis to solve problems in science, engineering, commerce and public policy.

Real Time Impact Forecasting for Early Warning

Kinetic Analysis Corporation (KAC) monitors tropical cyclone activity worldwide and produces, in real time, expected wind, wave and storm surge hazards associated with active storms. KAC generates this information typically within 15 minutes after receiving a tropical storm advisory, and updates this information with every new advisory (usually every 6 hours), from the first advisory to the moment the storm is dissipated overland.

Information on the potential impact of the storm before it makes landfall is of great value to all those who can be affected by the storm. Clear, advance information on expected site-specific impacts can be used to develop event-specific responses, including plans for pre-positioning response supplies, early arrangement of recovery mutual assistance and targeted messages to locations expected to be hardest hit by the storm.

KAC has developed a storm modeling system called TAOS (The Arbiter of Storms) that uses official tropical weather advisories and automated weather stations in conjunction with remotely sensed physical and environmental data to compute the wind, wave and storm surge associated with active storm tracks. KAC monitors advisories from designated Regional Specialized Forecast Centers, including the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), the National Center for Environmental Prediction, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Storm Early Warning Products and Services

KAC offers the storm impact forecasts in several forms, to meet the needs of a variety of users of early warning information.

Visualization of storm impact

A first product consists in a display of the wind fields, waves and storm surge inundation fields caused by a storm. These are displayed in the form of maps that describe levels of intensity of the phenomena: wind speed, wave height, surge height and coastal inundation. Perceived impacts are extremely helpful in conveying storm hazards, especially for areas away from the center of the forecast track.

KAC has the capacity to produce impact maps at a variety of resolutions, with higher resolutions covering smaller areas at much greater detail. Below is an example of a storm impact map. The map is displayed at a global resolution (approximately 5km grid size) suitable for tracking the course of a storm through large areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the eastern or western Pacific. KAC tracks active storms around the globe and makes global-resolution impact maps available at http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking.

Impact map for Hurricane Katrina approximately 36 hrs before landfall, based on the official NHC forecast.

Estimation of potential storm damage

In addition to producing impact maps, KAC also has the ability to compute damage along the track of any approaching storm. The level of damage or loss to residential or commercial property and infrastructure is estimated using engineering-based damage functions. This work is usually undertaken at medium resolution (30 arcsecond = 900m grid cells) or high resolution (3 or 1 arcsecond = 90m or 30m). Results are provided in map and tabular form to clients within 15 minutes after the official forecast. This information can support a wide range of applications, from evacuation decisions to contingency planning for decision makers responsible for utilities and transportation infrastructure.

Industry-specific Impact Assessments

Electrical Power Outage Forecasts

For any area the continental US which is in the path of an approaching tropical storm or hurricane, KAC forecasts the impact of the storm on the installations and operations of local electrical utilities. KAC provides outage and physical damage forecasts up to five days before landfall. Forecasts are updated every 3 hours and include percentages of transmission lines, substations, and distribution poles likely to be damaged, as well as power plant damage and down time.

Oil and Natural Gas Supply Forecasts

For the oil and gas installations in the US part of the Gulf of Mexico and on the US mainland, KAC forecasts the shortfall in oil and gas supply from the impact these installations may suffer from an approaching storm. This forecast is based on a estimates for shut-in percentages and duration for off-shore platforms due to weather conditions and/or damage, as well as damage and restoration times for underwater pipelines, ports, terminals and refineries.